Structural drivers of unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) can include insecurity, poverty and a lack of service delivery which are all exacerbated by the effects of climate change.[9] Many countries experience these factors, so thinking about UCG trigger events and indicators is important. Heightened insecurity or power vacuums had acted as triggers, and extreme military reshuffles or increased control of financial flows had been recent indicators.
AU election observation, APRM reports and Afrobarometer opinion polling also contribute to early warning to governments, as do public comments and protests.
Early warning systems and accountability
AU early warning systems were initially sophisticated with lots of investment, but states progressively undermined efforts to flag potential problems. Agreements on how systems should label countries as ‘high risk’ fell into disuse.
Objective data could improve consistency, but efforts to protect this from political interference have not worked. Governments want to control data and how it is interpreted. They have discouraged clear colour coding or risks in APRM reports and are not comfortable with AU or APRM numbers, preferring to use their national data which is less likely to show problems. Some national public agencies also lack the resources to do surveys or maintain national databases.
The role of peer accountability
There needs to be a better understanding of the conditions under which peer accountability is most credible. REC responses partly depend on relations with individual country leaders. RECs are more likely to have robust UCG norms and responses when their member governments respect these norms.
Peer accountability varies in different regions. ECOWAS has had some positive cases in smaller countries, such as in Gambia. SADC leaders tend to have a sense of solidarity among liberation parties that discourages intervention, but its responses vary. Leaders seem to have chosen how to act on UCGs in their region partly based on their fears about how norms might be applied against them in the future.
[9] UNFCCC (2020), ‘Climate Change is an Increasing Threat to Africa’