There was an electric charge in the air at this year’s Doha Forum amongst the many Middle East experts, analysts and diplomats, as news and rumours of the rebel advance in Syria swept the conference in real time. The announcement that Damascus had fallen was met by cheers.
The Doha Forum, along with the Raisena Dialogue in India, marks an important trend in non-western countries carving out major roles in shaping global political perspectives through large scale, though still exclusive, summitry.
Taking place against the backdrop of the fall of the Assad regime, the forum hosted ad hoc private and public meetings of key global stakeholders in that conflict, including the Turkish, Russian and Iranian Foreign Ministers. It certainly bolstered Qatari ambitions to be seen as an important regional, and global, actor and convenor for mediation and conflict resolution.
The Doha Forum brings together over 4,500 delegates from over 100 countries to Qatar’s capital for 2 days of panel discussions, speeches and networking around major global issues, all paid for by the Qatari government. It is typical of the scale of Qatari ambitions, but also represents the accelerating diffusion of global influence away from just Europe and North America. While thinktanks and academics from these regions are still heavily represented, so too increasingly are experts and organisations from elsewhere in the world, generating conversations and perspectives that, while familiar to Wilton Park’s global networks, are quite different from many domestic European and US policy debates.
The trend was arguably pioneered with great foresight by the International Institute of Strategic Studies in securing funding from the Bahraini and Singaporean Governments to establish the highly influential Shangri-La and Manema dialogues, the latter taking place this year at the same time as the Doha Forum. All of these join the more established western counterparts such as the World Economic Forum in Geneva, the Munich Security Conference, and the Aspen Security Forum – though even these are increasingly diversifying their locations.
As formal mechanisms of global governance weaken, these large summits, alongside the more bespoke and targeted convening undertaken by bodies such as Wilton Park, are becoming more important for preparing and negotiating global action on a range of issues – from climate change to mediation.
At the Doha Forum, it was interesting to observe the changing role of US, European countries and China. First Lady Jill Biden spoke uncontroversially to a packed hall, but, speaking later to an equally packed audience, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s provocative style and comments electrified and provoked the conference in equal measure. Former and potential officials under the next Trump administration attracted lots of attention too.
China’s presence was low key but pervasive, with the few Chinese officials in high demand. European countries had less profile than in recent years, and attention from the delegates to European perspectives, including on Ukraine, seemed muted at best.
Overall, the Doha Forum demonstrated the dynamism of international relations, and the fast and uncertain pace of cultural, technological and political change and progress, including on climate, security, demographics, and the interplay between all these and more. It also highlighted the growing appetite for disruptors – politicians and others who were prepared to provoke and entertain gained the lion’s share of attention.
The role of semi-formal ‘mini-multilaterals’ like Wilton Park will not go away, and is becoming more important. But there is still a gap, and an opportunity for another country or two, particularly from the global majority, to host a large dialogue comparable to the Doha Forum. Which other countries could manage the cost, administrative capacity, suitably user friendly visa regime, and openness to diversity of thought, is hard to say.